Futures forecasting

Classic efficient market theory says you can't beat the market in the long run, and statistics seem to support it. For example, a futures exchange operated by the University of Iowa since 1988 has been more accurate than polls 76 percent of the time for U.S. presidential and congressional elections. So why do futures markets work?

* Many minds are better than a few.

* Traders can quickly act on the most up-to-date information.

* Traders care more about being right because there's money involved.

The Iowa researchers have noted that futures prices — or, in other words, the market forecasts — are usually set by savvy traders who place their bets carefully, not by the occasional investor.

Featured

  • Workforce
    Avril Haines testifies SSCI Jan. 19, 2021

    Haines looks to restore IC workforce morale

    If confirmed, Avril Haines says that one of her top priorities as the Director of National Intelligence will be "institutional" issues, like renewing public trust in the intelligence community and improving workforce morale.

  • Defense
    laptop cloud concept (Andrey Suslov/Shutterstock.com)

    Telework, BYOD and DEOS

    Telework made the idea of bringing your own device a top priority as the Defense Information Systems Agency begins transitioning to a permanent version of the commercial virtual remote environment.

Stay Connected